Victory in Valadao – Cox Rematch Again Hinges on Kern Voters

After a Tuesday night update from Tulare County, incumbent TJ Cox (D-Fresno) picked up a net 15 votes from 319 new votes added (taking 52.4%), to reduce challenger David Valadao’s lead to 4,026 votes.

There will be no updated vote count Wednesday in the 21st Congressional District race on account of the Veterans Day holiday.

Tulare County Vote Returns of November 10

Four counties make up the 21st District, all with varying amounts of ballots remaining and differing update frequencies.

Kings County, which makes up 23% of the district, has halted all counting until Nov. 21 because of a staff COVID-19 exposure. County registrar Lupe Villa has said 1,529 ballots remain county wide, all 21st District voters.

Kings is the only county where all the voters fall within the same congressional district. Fresno, Tulare and Kern voters are split among multiple congressional districts.

Fresno County expects its next update on Friday afternoon.

Updated Overall Vote Count by Number and by County

Remaining Votes and Needed Total to Win

GV Wire estimates 34,178 votes remaining to be counted across the four counties. That is based on the overall total of votes remaining in the county, multiplied by the percentage of voters that fall within the 21st District.

Kern County has the bulk of the estimated remaining ballots at 31,385.

For Cox to close the 4,000-plus vote gap, he would need 55.8% of the remaining vote. That number can fluctuate dependent on vote returns.

Kern has been Cox’s strongest county in the vote returns, taking 60.5% of the votes counted so far. It is on par with his 2018 vote return in Kern County.

However, in the two updates since initial election night returns, Cox’s percentage of new votes has decreased. In an Nov. 7 update, Cox took 58.6% of newly counted Kern County votes; yesterday, he earned 55.9%.

According to the Secretary of State, Kern is still counting vote-by-mail and same-day registration ballots.

Updated percentages for other counties have been more consistent with the overall figures for that county.

If the same ratios continue for the remaining ballots on a county-by-county basis, Cox would pick up a net of 6,201 votes and win the election.

Just as in 2018 when Cox defeated Valadao by 862 votes, this one could go down to the wire again.

Vote Returns by County by Percentage

Estimated Vote Share of Remaining Ballots